DAIRY

v. 11, n. 423, março, 2026

Abstract

Milk production in Brazil’s Northeast rose by 14.12% on a cumulative basis in 2025 compared with 2024, driven by technological progress, the expansion of production systems, and genetic improvement, resulting in increased supply across nearly all states. Despite this growth, the region’s trade deficit widened by 10.7% in volume, reflecting high production costs, limited industrial competitiveness, and reliance on imports, particularly powdered milk and cheeses. Nationwide, milk production increased by 7.93% over the same period, imports declined, and the dairy trade deficit narrowed by 8.09% in volume, amid geopolitical tensions, U.S. tariffs, and exchange rate volatility. The year 2025 was marked by volatility in farm-gate margins and a better balance between supply and demand; however, structural challenges remain, including production seasonality, elevated input costs, low standardization, and the limited participation of small agro-industries in the formal market. For 2026, economic growth is expected to moderate while global dairy demand rises, with supply broadly keeping pace. The conflict in the Middle East may disrupt supply chains, raising production costs and pressuring margins. The Northeast has significant expansion potential, contingent on improved organization and strategic coordination.