COVID-19 IN NORTHEAST BRAZIL: EVIDENCE ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SOCIAL ISOLATION POLICIES

Abstract

This study aims to analyze whether the social distance policies implemented in the Northeast region of Brazil were effective in containing the spread of the new coronavirus. The elasticities of the Social Isolation Index were estimated in relation to the number of deaths and new cases registered. This paper indicates that the effect of the social isolation policy is not homogeneous across municipalities, it changes according to per capita income or population size. The effect of reducing the number of new cases is greater for municipalities with lower per capita income. The models specified according to the size of the population, both the smallest municipalities (up to 50 thousand inhabitants) and the largest (over 100 thousand inhabitants) presented similar and relevant results in reducing new cases. This study concludes that the practice of social isolation has significantly contributed to reducing the number of new cases. However, the effect on deaths is uncertain and/or not statistically significant in the different specifications adopted