BRAZILIAN FRUIT EXPORTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE: EVIDENCE IN THE LIGHT OF THE GRAVITATIONAL MODEL

Abstract

The potential effect of climate change on agricultural productivity has been shown to be relevant in scientific, political, and socioeconomic debate. In this sense and considering that agriculture plays a fundamental role in food security, this research aims to measure the effects of climate change on the export capacity of fruit production in Brazil. The analysis covers the period from 1997 to 2019 and includes the 38 main importers of Brazilian fruit. For that, the gravitational model was used. The results indicate that in the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood (PPML) model, that rainfall was not statistically significant, while a 1% increase in temperature increased fruit exports in Brazil by approximately 16.35%. Furthermore, it was observed that Brazilian fruit exports are directly related to the national GDP and to the GDP of the main importing countries, being inversely proportional to the distance variable.