INFLUENTIAL FACTORS FOR CANCELLATION OF AIR ROUTES IN BRAZIL: AN ANALYSIS IN THE CONTEXT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Abstract

The air transport sector is changing due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and various actions have been taken to mitigate the economic impacts. The recovery has been continuous as vaccination progresses and disease control improves, with airlines gradually returning to pre-COVID-19 activity levels. Routes are being created and others cancelled, highlighting the dynamism and adaptability of the sector. Identifying routes with the potential for closure in the following year is information that can be used by planners, public officials and administrators in the aviation sector to improve network efficiency, anticipate public policy actions and better manage airport infrastructure. Thus, the work aims to identify and discuss influential factors for the cancellation of air routes in Brazil, considering the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, applying a binary logit model. It was observed that the significant variables that appeared most frequently, considering Brazil and each of its regions, were: flight frequency, distance flown, paying passengers, the creation of non-regular flights to meet excess demand, and whether there was competition between Azul and Latam airlines for a particular route.