REDUCTION IN HOMICIDES THROUGH THE “PACTO FOR LIFE” AND “PACIFICATION POLICE UNITS” PROGRAMS BETWEEN 2008 AND 2017: AN ANALYSIS BY SYNTHETIC CONTROL

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61673/ren.2024.1487

Keywords:

public policy, synthetic control, syntheticcrime, crime, murder

Abstract

This article evaluates, using Synthetic Control, the reduction in homicide rates over ten years (2008 to 2017) due to the Pacto Pela Vida (PPV) and Pacifying Police Units (UPPs) programs implemented in Pernambuco and Rio de Janeiro, respectively. The results show a significant drop in homicide rates in the first years, with a subsequent reversal in both cases. Using a placebo procedure, statistical significance was demonstrated in four years of PPV and in one year of UPPs. Finally, it is possible to estimate the lives saved by the programs together in the period at more than 40 thousand.

Author Biographies

Veneziano de Castro Araujo, Federal University of Sao Paulo

Graduated in Computer Engineering – University of São Paulo. PhD in Production Engineering – University of São Paulo. Adjunct Professor of the Department of Economics at the Federal University of São Paulo. R. Oleska Winogradow 100, Osasco, SP. veneziano.araujo@unifesp.br

Murillo Amorim Costa, University of Sao Paulo

Bachelor of Economics – Federal University of São Paulo. murilloccosta96@gmail.com

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Published

2024-05-14

How to Cite

Araujo, V. de C., & Costa, M. A. (2024). REDUCTION IN HOMICIDES THROUGH THE “PACTO FOR LIFE” AND “PACIFICATION POLICE UNITS” PROGRAMS BETWEEN 2008 AND 2017: AN ANALYSIS BY SYNTHETIC CONTROL. Revista Econômica Do Nordeste, 55(2), 68–86. https://doi.org/10.61673/ren.2024.1487

Issue

Vol. 55 No. 2 (2024)

Section

Artigos

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