IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON THE NUMBER OF BANKRUPTCY IN BRAZILIAN COMPANIES

Abstract

The study aimed to investigate the impacts of macroeconomic factors on the financial difficulties of Brazilian companies. For this purpose, from May 2010 to October 2021, the number of bankruptcies filed monthly was considered as a dependent variable. To carry out the tests, an ARMA-type time series model was used and econometric stability was verified through tests of Breusch-Godfrey, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey, RESET, VIF and Jarque-Bera.  The  results  indicate  that  the  basic  interest  rate  and  the  opening  of  new  companies  have  a  positive  relationship with the number of bankruptcy filings by Brazilian firms. The quotation of the Ibovespa index and the money supply are negatively associated with the number of required bankruptcies. In addition, it was shown that micro and small companies are more sensitive to macroeconomic factors than medium and large companies, and that low interest rates and greater credit offers positively influence the survival of Brazilian firms, especially micro and small companies and companies operating in the service sector. It is expected that the results of this research will contribute from a practical perspective by providing evidence of the impacts of Brazilian central bank (Bacen) decisions and political decisions that directly reflect on the closure of companies' activities.