DETERMINANTS OF THE SPREAD AND MORTALITY OF COVID-19: A CROSS-SECTION ANALYSIS OF THE NEIGHBORHOODS OF SALVADOR

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused significant losses in people's lives and quality of health, in addition to negatively impacting the generation of employment and income and the sustainability of public accounts. This work seeks to assess whether population density, the intensity of economic activities, neighborhood effects and demographic and socioeconomic characteristics are determinants of Covid-19 contagion, mortality and lethality. Using cross-section data from neighborhoods in the municipality of Salvador in the period 2020-2021, quantile regression, robust regression and spatial analysis models were estimated. The results indicate that neighborhoods with more intense economic activities and with a population predominantly of black men with low education and income have higher levels of contamination and severity of Covid-19. The predominance of elderly people in the population was relevant for incidence and mortality rates, while neighborhood effects proved to be important only for the fatality rate.