CLIMATE CHANGES AND TOURISM: AN ESTIMATE OF THE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY OF SALVADOR (BA)

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61673/ren.2024.1588

Keywords:

Economic loss, Climate risk, TERM, Computable General Equilibrium.

Abstract

The Study aimed to project the economic impacts arising from climate change on tourist activity in the municipality of Salvador (Bahia). To this end, an inter-regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with recursive dynamics was used, developed for the analysis of the Brazilian economy and regionalized exclusively for the purposes of this research, whose theoretical structure follows the TERM model developed by the Center of Policy Studies from Australia, and which was called TERM - Salvador. The simulations were translated as a decrease in demand for tourist services (tourist flow x tourist expenditure), simulated through climate impact chains constructed based on the theoretical framework contained in the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC and the Risk Supplement to Vulnerability Sourcebook of the German International Cooperation Agency for Sustainable Development (GIZ). We worked with two scenarios relating to the existence or not of adaptive capabilities in the destination, for the time horizons of 2030, 2050 and 2100. In both cases and in all projected years, the losses verified are significant, reaching R$3 billion in the year 2030, R$11 billion in 2050 and R$40 billion in 2100, totaling R$1.4 trillion if the accumulated result for the entire period is considered.

Author Biographies

Gessica Cardoso Pereira de Souza, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

Economista. Doutorado em Economia Aplicada pelo Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional. Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Pesquisadora. Rua Dr. Sebastião Campos, 54, Bicas, Minas Gerais. gessicacps@yahoo.com.br

Thiago Henrique Carneiro Rios Lopes, Federal University of Sergipe

Economist, graduated from the State University of Feira de Santana (UEFS). At this institution he was a researcher and member of the Interdisciplinary Center for Studies in Economics and Public Administration (NIEAP), where he carried out research in the area of ​​Regional and Local Development. He has a master's degree in Economics from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) and a PhD in Economics from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG). He is interested in the areas of Economic Development and Regional Economy. He was a professor in the Postgraduate Program in Regional and Urban Development (PPDRU) at the Salvador University (UNIFACS) between 2017 and 2021. He is currently a tenured professor at the Federal University of Sergipe.(T(UFS).

Tiago Cisalpino Pinheiro, Federal University of Minas Gerais

Economist. PhD in Geography from PUC Minas. Post-doctoral internship at the Environmental Studies Laboratory at UFMG.

Valentina Tridello, Aiyê Consultores

Architect, urban planner and researcher with experience in building urban resilience strategies and assessing vulnerability and climate risk in northeastern Brazil. Director of the consultancy company Aiyê, specialized in climate risk analysis and identification of adaptation measures to climate change. She has worked in several international contexts developing projects on socio-spatial inclusion, urban metabolism, climate adaptation, urban regeneration, metropolitan strategic planning and architectural design, respectively in Chile, Brazil, Mozambique, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. She was an assistant professor on the urban planning course at the IUAV University of Venice where she also participated in the organization of several international events and workshops. She holds a European Master's degree in Urbanism (EMU) jointly from the universities IUAV of Venice, TU Delft, KU Leuven and UPC Barcelona (2019). She has architectural training from the universities IUAV of Venice and Pontifical Catholic University of Chile PUC (2016). She speaks fluent Portuguese, English, Spanish, Italian and basic French.

Carolina de Andrade Spinola, Salvador University

PhD in Geography from the University of Barcelona (2005), Master's in Administration from the Federal University of Bahia (1996) and Degree in Business Administration from the Catholic University of Salvador (1992). Vice-Rector of Postgraduate Studies, Research and Extension at the University of Salvador (UNIFACS), between 2013 and 2017. Institutional Representative for Scientific and Technological Initiation at CNPq. She currently holds the Coordination of Stricto Sensu Courses and the Coordination of the Postgraduate Program in Regional and Urban Development, where she also works as a Full Professor. She was Coordinator of the Green Areas Thematic Chamber of the Salvador Climate Change Panel between 2019 and 2021. Leader of the Tourism Research Group (GPTURIS) and member of the Regional and Urban Economy Study Group (GERURB). She has experience in the areas of Administration and Tourism, with an emphasis on Regional Development, working mainly on the following topics: entrepreneurship, local development, ecotourism, tourism planning and competitiveness.

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Published

2024-10-31

How to Cite

Souza, G. C. P. de, Lopes, T. H. C. R., Pinheiro, T. C., Tridello, V., & Spinola, C. de A. (2024). CLIMATE CHANGES AND TOURISM: AN ESTIMATE OF THE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY OF SALVADOR (BA). Revista Econômica Do Nordeste, 55(4), 107–122. https://doi.org/10.61673/ren.2024.1588

Issue

Vol. 55 No. 4 (2024)

Section

Artigos

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