FATORES DETERMINANTES DE CRISES CAMBIAIS E BANCÁRIAS

Abstract

Recent events in East Asia have reminded the world of how rapidly and with what disruptive force banking crises can erupt, and of how difficult it is to foresee the timing and full ramifications of these dramatic events. On the other hand, the coincidence of banking and currency crises associated with Asian financial crisis have drawn renewed attention to causal and common factors linking the two phenomena. This survey aims at the identification of the main explanatory factors of the banking crises and currency crises and stress that while currency crises leading to banking crises are a more obvious direction of causality, banking crises could also lead to currency crises and, indeed, the whole process could become self-reinforcing.