UMA ABORDAGEM ECONOMÉTRICA DO MERCADO POTENCIAL DE CARNE DE OVINOS E CAPRINOS PARA O BRASIL

Abstract

This paper estimated mutton and goat meat potential supply and demand, in Northeast Brazil and Brazil, in order to measure production as a function of the existing market for these products. To predict supply, the study used a parametric method by adjusting a polinomial equation. To predict demand, the study used a method which aggregates per capita growth rates of income and population, and income elasticity of demand to the classical consumption function. The results showed the existence of huge current and potential deficits of mutton and goat meat in Northeast Brazil and in Brazil.